Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him for not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When the in-form star drilled in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss discarded his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, are somehow just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
